Trends that will shape business and society in 2025

As leaders enter 2025, they know one thing for sure: the coming twelve months will yet again see them face a range of complex and disruptive challenges and opportunities. Using the PEST-model, experts from Jester Strategy outline the top trends they should consider as they navigate their journey to success.
1) Politics
Trump 2.0: towards a ‘G-zero world’?
Having just taken office, Trump is already making waves. Ranging from threatening to impose major tariffs, such as 100% on BRICS-country products or 25% on Canada and Mexico, to some eyebrow-raising appointments in top positions.
Needless to say, his plans – and the uncertainty surrounding these plans – will have major repercussions across the globe, in terms of (international) security (e.g. think NATO, Ukraine or the Asia-Pacific), trade, and economy.
With mostly inexperienced loyalists surrounding him, many fear the ‘guardrails’ that were in place during his first term in the office, are gone. The world holds its breath. Will Trump’s policies usher in a (dangerous) ‘G-Zero world’ in which no country/bloc is able and willing to drive the global agenda and maintain order?
Noteworthy 2025 elections: GER and AUS
In February, the Germans will have parliamentary elections after the government coalition collapsed in 2024. As it stands, Merz (CDU) is beating outgoing chancellor Scholz (SPD) in polls. Expect various possible coalitions to be explored as most parties will shun the increasingly popular far-right AfD.
Later this spring, Australians will head to the polls for federal elections. So far current Labour PM Albanese is in a dead heat with centre-right Coalition’s Peter Dutton, who appears to be slightly ahead in the latest polling. Poland will elect a new president in May. The Canadians will be heading to the polls as well later this year to elect a successor to Justin Trudeau.
Israel-Gaza and West-Bank, and Lebanon
While there currently is a cease-fire in place, RANE expects Israel to pursue a more aggressive annexation policy in the West Bank and possible resettlement in Gaza. Especially given a more hawkish, pro-Israel policy to be expected from the White House. Tensions can spiral into a full-scale uprising in the West-Bank later this year.
Syria’s complex new reality
Be careful what you wish for... A lesson the West learned following the Arab Spring. With Assad’s ruthless rule over, will HTS provide stability in a complex Syria and region in turmoil?
Ukraine begrudgingly open to negotiate?
With US support increasingly uncertain under the Trump administration and Republican-led Congress, all eyes are on the EU to pick up the slack. However, aid for Ukraine is facing lower political support there as well, possibly strengthening Putin’s bargaining position. Some form of ceasefire talks can be expected but will remain fragile at best and certainly will not offer any long-term solutions.
Chinese containment facing headwinds
Will Trump’s more isolationist and transactional approach perhaps embolden Beijing to escalate the conflict with Taiwan as the US’ support might be called into question? Meanwhile, key US allies Japan and South Korea are preoccupied with internal political scandals, slowing (further) regional security cooperation.
2) Economy
Moderate global growth, yet with a big asterisk
Moderate economic growth is foreseen globally (no recession really to be expected), with inflation declining, wage growth normalising, and central bank slowering interest rates (ECB: approximately 2%, FED <4%) and normalizing monetary policies. The economy will grow modestly but positively in the US and EU and will continue to slow down (yet still grow) in China.
ABN Amro expects the US dollar and Euro to reach parity during 2025. Of course, the spectre of Trump’s tariffs hangs over this global macro picture. Various institutions have multiple scenarios regarding when Trump will apply tariffs, on whom and how high these will be. These tariffs will naturally impact growth as well as inflation of both the US and many of its trading partners.
The big asterisk: tariffs and countermeasures galore?
The US will likely not levy the extreme tariffs Trump touts, RANE expects. However, the US will impose smaller ones to show their resolve and use them as bargaining chips to get more favourable trade deals. Certain products, raw materials, as well as specific countries, will be (relatively) exempt.
However, if significant tariffs on Chinese goods are imposed, other countries will likely follow the US’ lead as to prevent dumping of Chinese goods originally intended for the US market. This spectre of tariffs and retaliatory trade measures can also further accelerate ‘Western decoupling’ from China.
The year of alternative and crypto currencies?
Yes, crypto is a trend, again. In 2025, the trend might be different, though. The world might be looking more seriously into alternatives to the US dollar in light of the ‘Trump 2.0’ administration.
Will the BRICS+’s gold-backed digital currency take off, for instance? Or will ’crypto bros’ like Musk and Ramaswamy hold sway over US policy (and Trump) and usher in a new period for crypto currencies? Or will the world continue to resort to good old safe harbor gold?
A mixed bag for green driven growth?
Biden-era IRA subsidies will still spur infrastructure spending and the EU and China will heavily invest in digital networks and green infrastructure. Large investments into renewable energy will drive rising prices in commodities like copper (for cables and batteries). Yet a slow down in electrical vehicles sales and a shift to new types of battery might drive down prices of lithium, cobalt, or nickel.
This year Norway will also auction off parts of its arctic seabeds. Beside protests, expect a run for arctic and deep-sea mining this year as companies and governments continue to try to break China’s grip on crucial metals and minerals for the energy transition.
However, as European companies publish their first mandatory sustainability reports this year, some expect a backlash against sustainable investing spreading out of the US.
3) Society
Enduring social dissatisfaction breeds increasing short-termism
Investment giant Blackrock expects 2025 to continue the trend of voter dissatisfaction over costs of living and immigration. They expect sitting governments to lose support and lose elections but also increased ‘short-termism’ as both incumbent and incoming governments want to move quickly on policy agendas to placate the dissatisfied electorate.
The potential for populist policy shake ups is high and for (macro-economic) stabilizing policies a bit lower; they expect markets to enforce financial discipline where governments are lacking.
Brands, prove who you are
With AI able to flood us with (fake) content, products, brands, identities, etc., the line between real and scam is blurring, even on platforms people used to trust. Therefore, according to Accenture, people will not only prioritize trust in online interactions or be more hesitant in online purchases but actually will increasingly look for ways to reduce their internet dependence.
The Accenture report further notes that for years brands / companies have asked consumers to proof their identity, but now we’re starting to see the burden of proof reverse.
DEIcide
2024’s elections across the globe not only saw success for parties feeding into the backlash against high costs of living, immigration, and green policies but also against ‘wokeism’. DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion) policies will therefore be toned down in 2025, not only by governments (especially Trump’s) but by businesses as well.
The Economist expects DEI to be a term beyond saving, yet many companies will continue to recognise the value of creating (and investing in) a fair and diverse workplace.
The ‘real’ and local to counter digital fatigue
With everybody online 24/7, there is an increasing nostalgia to ‘offline times’. For Gen Z and Gen Alpha the 1990s are now back in vogue, a simpler time where people were truly living in the moment. This ties in to a broader trend picking up steam.
One in which reconnection with one’s local surroundings, with nature, with physical exercise and experiences (like retail stores) is gaining ground. A trend in which people are reevaluating whether everything that can should be digitised or whether things should always be ‘grounded’ physically grounded with digital merely as an enabler.
Being more physically and locally grounded, also translates into culture, with more attention being paid to local traditions and heritage in terms of fashion, design, and travel. Gone are the days of all brands and designs becoming a minimalist, homogenous, bland mixture of ‘sans-serif’. Back are more exuberant brands and styles with a unique and proudly local identity.
The ‘content reset’
Paradoxically (given increasing digital fatigue), it’s actually games that will dominate the cultural landscape in 2025. Hollywood seems to be done with superheros and is riding the wave of video game adaptations. Moreover, expected to be bigger than any blockbuster movie, GTA 6 will be the most highly anticipated release of the year.
4) Technology
From the cloud to the edge, from software to hardware
This year, over 50% of data could generated by ‘edge’ devices. Devices not relying on the cloud but equipped with their own (neural) processing units and AI. Quicker, cheaper, and safer. As Vivek Mohindra from Dell states, “It’s better to bring AI to the data, rather than bring the data to AI.”
Big Four firm Deloitte regards this transition part of a wider tech trend for 2025 in which hardware and infrastructure are ‘hot’ again (instead of AI and software), as resource constraints (access to specialised chips, energy, etc.) make hardware a strategic issue and investment area once again.
A new age of unbundling?
Social media has been facing scrutiny for years, although it’s hard for individuals to ‘detox’ from it in reality. With new studies now able to actually underpin hypotheses with data, this scrutiny will increase – especially in regard to children. Australia, for instance, has already (late 2024) banned social media for kids under 16 years old.
The impact social media and especially smart phones have on our daily lives is increasingly bringing into question whether bundling everything into a single device and a select few service providers has been such a good idea.
Will we therefore enter a period in which more and more people will seek to opt out, to rebalance, to diversify providers and look for new options? Will parents, will lawmakers even, shield new generations from smart phones altogether?
US tech deregulation?
Quite some staff with a Silicon Valley background will have President Trump’s ear. Many of them favour deregulation, both in terms of tech itself as well as economics.
However, as the Economist points out, whereas the ‘tech bros’ want to disrupt and advance progress (including recognising the need for foreign talent), conservative and protectionist MAGA forces in Trump’s White House are more hostile to tech itself, foreign tech workers, and major corporations. Who will win this clash of cultures and how will it impact tech(progress)?
Streaming platforms looking increasingly like TV stations
Japanese advertising and public relations firm Dentsu states that original content attracts viewers, but licensed content makes them stay. In this light, more and more streaming platforms are getting into (live) sports (loyal fans = loyal watchers).
More importantly, live streaming sports makes people tune in at the same time, creating predictable audience peaks. Plus sports games have breaks. All perfect for advertisements; a revenue stream the major platforms are now increasingly getting into. Some even making the ad-based option their default subscription-tier. It’s quite ironic how the disruptors now start to look like the disruptees.
Emergence of digital authoritarianism
Nations like China and Russia may export digital governance models blending surveillance, AI, and censorship to developing countries under the guise of tech infrastructure investments. This could polarise global internet governance debates and create increasingly fragmented digital ecosystems (‘splinternet’).
5) Ecology
The US pulling out of Paris
Déjà vu for sure. Already in 2017 President Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the 2015 Paris climate agreement (which it did in November 2020). On his first day in office, President Biden ensured the US was back in. That decision was reversed today by Trump in his first day in the office.
This might set back global efforts on/pace of decarbonization. It can also make China step up its global role and out-compete the US on green tech.
China: past ‘peak carbon’ and towards ESG leadership?
China has pretty much become the world leader in terms of solar panels, electrical vehicles, and other green tech production. On some fields they are even leading innovation. Ironically, 60% of the country’s electricity is still produced with coal. Therefore, many projections have forecast China emitting more carbon towards 2030.
However, China is doubling down on renewables, even outpacing forecasts. Early 2025, China’s carbon emissions data will be published. Some experts argue that these might show that the projected trend of carbon emissions increases will be bucked, indicating China’s CO2 emissions might have peaked.
A huge moment for the world’s largest CO2 emitter. From that moment on, will China take the lead on matters E(SG) as the US – and to a lesser extent Europe – lower their green ambitions?
Water is the new carbon
Droughts and water scarcity in regions like the western US, the Middle East, and South Asia could prompt global initiatives on water conservation. Investments in innovations such as solar-powered desalination plants and/or water-as-a-service (WaaS) models will increase, especially as water scarcity will form an ever-larger threat to the license to operate of many industries.
La Niña of little help: still a warm year
Where 2024 was characterized by the El Niño (hotter) phase, 2025 will start out with La Niña (colder), but only slightly so. Therefore, the British Met Office predicts 2025 to still be in the top-3 hottest years to date. Therefore, expect extreme weather events.
Scrutiny of AI’s energy usage boosts mega batteries
(AI) data centres require ever more power and therefore increase electricity prices for consumers, businesses, and industries still recovering from the past few years’ inflation. With public outrage over this growing, perhaps AI and crypto mining can expect additional taxes on their energy use. This, in turn, can spur them to invest more into specific energy solutions (like dedicated solar farms with mega battery packs).
Sure, this is one of Saxo Bank’s self-professed ‘Outrageous Predictions’ but given current energy price trends and Elon Musk’s (who happens to sell ‘Megapack’ batteries) newfound influence on US politicians, perhaps the stars might just align for mega batteries and even other ‘grid- scale energy storage’ technologies (like compressed gas).
6) Demography
Continued demand for stricter immigration
Growing concern and even hostility about immigration has marked every election in 2024; those touting anti-immigration stances often being the winners.
2025 will likely see stricter migration rules being a top policy priority in many rich countries, with many looking into options to process asylum-seekers in third countries (despite Britain and Italy encountering some legal issues on that). Also debates regarding international students (e.g. in Australia as well as the Netherlands) are flaring up.
Yet, given dwindling and ageing populations and economic dependence (much innovation stems from migrants), countries will increasingly need to strike a balance between being stricter and being selectively open.
Rise of the ‘smart village’
The ‘smart city’ is so 2008… With urbanisation still accelerating, rural areas are adopting “smart village” technologies – integrating internet of things, renewable energy, and digital services – in order to attract new residents and sustain their communities.
Multigenerational living as a norm
Economic pressures and aging populations will start to make multigenerational living more common globally and especially in the west. Companies will start to capitalise on this trend by designing homes with modular spaces or family-oriented services.
Need to move beyond the EX recession
Across the globe, employees are feeling more and more dehumanized, feeling they are just a ‘resource’ or ‘cog’, working along or within IT systems in organisations prioritising productivity (and increasingly using digital tools to monitor and track employees’ activities more closely), cutting on ‘fun’ and morale boosting activities and programs, and allowing for zero time to be creative and just think.
When placed against the backdrop of AI taking over tasks and roles and a more general re-evaluation of the value and social role of work (especially by younger generations), it brings into focus a broader reorientation and reinvigoration needed to go from an increasingly ‘transactional’ towards a more meaningful relationship in organisations, especially given many countries’ increasingly scarce labour market.