‘Future-back thinking’: Strategic planning in a changing world
Leaders today face big changes that make future-proofing their businesses increasingly difficult. A innovative approach from BTS helps leaders with their strategic planning for what comes next – when ‘next’ keeps changing.
Much of the strategic planning that takes place in companies these days sets out from an outdated logic. The thinking goes that we should first look at what is happening now, make small improvements over time, and ultimately try to make predictions about what comes next.
But this does not really work in a rapidly changing world, where yesterday’s strategies do not line up with today’s reality. Another approach is to envision the future and work backwards from there, which is what BTS calls ‘future-back thinking’
What is future-back thinking?
“Future-back thinking flips traditional strategy. Rather than starting with today’s constraints, it begins with a bold vision of future success – and works backward to define what it will take to get there,” said Lynn Collins, local partner and co-head of assessment at BTS.
“This approach helped us look past short-term pressures and surface deeper signals. It made the future feel more actionable – and more human.”
Starting with the future success in mind helps break with the tradition of making only small tweaks to a set strategy – instead it encourages more ambitious reimagining of what is possible. Many organizations are not good at innovating because they keep to the same script, out of fear of veering too far off course.
Together with a team of academics and senior leaders, BTS applied future-back thinking to make a few predictions. These were grounded in signals the team was already able to observe.
For instance, they predicted that rigid job structures would transform into fluid, capability-based models, reflecting how people grow and business needs evolve, a shift now well underway with many organizations redesigning roles around transferable skills.
In another prediction, the team anticipated that Generative AI would enable personalized, real-time learning at scale, integrated into daily work, and indeed, the technology is now embedded in learning ecosystems, powering smart coaching and adaptive paths.
Changing the mindset
“Most strategic plans start by looking around – at what exists, what’s already in motion, what feels feasible,” said Collins. “But the brain doesn’t just collect data. It builds habits. It channels information into familiar paths. And it reinforces what it already knows. That’s good for speed, but bad for imagination.”
Future-back thinking challenges this kind of mentality because it begins at the goal, working backwards through today’s structures. It is a way to reverse-engineer the process of arriving at that goal.
BTS suggestions considering these three propositions to help start thinking in a more ‘future-back’ way:
- What assumptions are we treating as facts? The most dangerous limits are the ones we no longer see.
- What would someone from a completely different world do? (A customer, a child, Beyoncé?) Try role-storming to unlock new angles.
- What if we had no legacy systems to maintain? What would we build from scratch? Imagine a blank slate.
When thinking strategically, business leaders can get stuck in a certain mode of thinking that automatically prioritizes what feels safe instead of what the future actually demands. That is why future-back thinking can be a powerful provocation to shake things up. It is a way to change the gameplan and approach problems more creatively, though it may take leaders out of their comfort zones.
Far too often, organizations invest considerable time and energy planning for a version of the world that no longer exists. They reinforce legacy mindsets, delay bold moves, and ultimately miss critical opportunities. Future-back thinking offers a new path by providing leaders with a structured approach to reimagine what is possible, align their teams around a shared vision of the future, and begin putting the pieces in place to work towards it.
With this approach to strategy, BTS helps business leaders and their teams break free from old patterns by surfacing the hidden assumptions quietly guiding their decisions. They are encouraged to aspire to vivid, future-state scenarios that boldly challenge status quo thinking.
One way to encourage future-back thinking is through role-storming, which helps teams transform ambitious visions into strategic options that unlock creativity. BTS runs future decision making simulations in order to help build confidence and agility. Ultimately, the aim is to develop the mindsets and capabilities their strategy truly requires.
