BrazilGlobal warming boosts the economies of some 70 countries
Deloitte has released a study that details how warming of temperatures across the world could generate an economic boost to some 70 countries in the coming decades.
The Big Four accounting and advisory firm’s analysis is based on four scenarios put forth by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – each laying down a different trajectory and timeline for global emissions over the course of the 21st century. The scenarios are labeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and Deloitte highlights that the Czech economy stands to benefit from each scenario.
Countries across the globe are currently engaged in cutting down emissions to protect the environment, although these efforts are complex and present myriad challenges. Depending on the success of such initiatives, the world could be at a number of different emission levels by the time 2050 is reached, and then further on to the end of the century. The four pathways cover the best and the worst case scenarios of progress.
For the mildest pathway, the Czech economy could stand to gain nearly 0.3% in GDP per capita by 2050 when compared to current emission levels and temperatures, with similar gains spread across the rest of the century as well. Interestingly, the higher the emissions, the higher the benefit for Czech Republic.
In the event that emissions skyrocket and the world follows the most negative climate change route in the next seven to eight decades, the Czech economy could gain nearly 0.5% per capita by 2050 and more than 1% by the end of the century according to Deloitte. While apparently marginal in volume, these could add up to significant figures when stretched across nearly 100 years. In the mildest pathway this adds up to 8.5% in gains, while the benefits could amount to up to 25% in the harshest scenario.
So the Czech Republic is poised to benefit from any increase in emissions, no matter how intense. The country is not alone in this position. In fact, the analysis suggests that around 70 countries in total stand to benefit from higher temperatures. Fellow cold climate countries Russia, Canada, Mongolia, Finland, Kyrgystan, Norway, Tajikistan, Sweden, Iceland and North Korea are all in the same boat.
On the flipside, nearly 130 countries stand to face negative economic consequences from climate change. The worst affected appear to be the hottest – Deloitte lists a number of Middle Eastern and African countries such as Mali, Qatar, Sudan and Kuwait, among others, as those which stand to lose the most from global warming.
While the Czech Republic appears to be conveniently positioned, more countries stand to lose from rising emissions and temperatures than those who stand to gain. Experts have suggested that even the countries that Deloitte positions to benefit from climate change will not exactly be winning, pointing to a number of detrimental factors that are not considered in the economic analysis.
Speaking to the Czech News Agency, Deloitte Director and co-author of the report David Marek indicated that climate change doubtless remains a pressing issue, and will have far-reaching repercussions. "Climate change has far-reaching adverse effects on natural systems and human society. At the economic level, climate change primarily affects agricultural production. However, the impact is and will be felt in a number of other sectors, such as transport, energy, tourism or construction," said Marek.
