Brazil5 future scenarios for the adaptation to climate change
What is in store for the world in the not-so-distant future marked by the need to adapt to the increasingly dire effects of climate change? A report from Arthur D. Little has come up with five distinct scenarios for the future.
In its 120-page report, conducted by Blue Shift (Arthur D. Little’s forward-looking research house), the experts identify 11 factors that according to them shape climate change adaptation, grouped into geophysical, biological, behavioral/ demographic, and economic categories.
Based on these factors, the researchers assessed the most likely developments and decarbonizations paths for the future, and then identified five scenarios for how the future of climate adaptation could unfold.
Green communities
This is a scenario in which grassroots initiatives become a saving grace for communities in a resource-scarce future. Smaller scale solutions take center stage precisely due to a lack of more ambitious projects and there is increased decentralization, circularity, and frugality.
Based on a high consumer behavior shift and limited financial mechanisms, the Green Communities projection lends itself to community-led initiatives and nature-based solutions, with a particular focus on the food and beverage supply chain.
Lonely at the top
Another possible outcome is a future in which industries become highly concentrated and competitive and markets specialize in adaption. This allows them to continue satisfying consumers, though they struggle with increasingly heavy constraints.
‘The Wild Green West’
This future scenario is a creative chaos in which private adaption initiatives are everywhere thanks to hype and private capital backing. There is, however, no overarching strategy or consistency and these initiatives can feel like ‘a bunch of hot air’.
With little regulation around, the doors are open to experimentation of all kinds, leading to a focus on less mature solutions with high perceived return on investment.
Don’t look up
In another future scenario, there is neither a large-scale shift in finance nor in consumer behaviors. A pessimistic outlook, it would entail a sort of collective cognitive dissonance wherein no one is really adjusting to the new climate reality and solutions are nowhere to be found.
Adaptation surge
All variables favor adaptation, creating a relative utopia where adaptation is the norm and the new currency. This resets expectations, creates new markets and needs for differentiation, and everyone is generally on board.
The future?
In any case, whatever the future holds as far as adaption to climate change, one thing is for certain: Big changes still need to be seen not just at the regulatory level, but also in the private sector. Business around the world must make changes in the ways they operate.
When it comes to taking action on adaption, companies face a number of hurdles in implementing successful initiatives. A lot of that is linked to a lack of knowledge on how to proceed. According to the report, most experts agreed that this is the most pressing obstacle, though corporates were not as likely to admit their lack of knowledge.
Executives, for their part, emphasized limitations with current technology and a lack of financial resources (both 53% of those polled) as their biggest challenges. Resistance to change is another major obstacle noted by experts that corporates also did not appear to totally agree with.
Arthur D. Little issued a number of recommendations for companies to work towards better adaption. Companies should work to develop better forecasting strategies, they should be using innovative tools to properly assess risk, and they should be launching pilot projects that can serve as proofs of concept for bold sustainability initiatives.
“When faced with prospective technology choices, executives often need to address three challenges: complexity, speed and cognition,” said Albert Meige, global director of Blue Shift at Arthur D. Little.
“Adaptation to climate change is no different. It is complex because climate impacts are local, multifactorial and highly variable; and also because there is a myriad of adaptation technologies available. By modeling potential scenarios we aim to cut through this complexity, providing CEOs with a clear guide to the potential technologies that their adaptation will require.”
