Dutch M&A market enters 2025 with promising signs for further rebound

Despite another year of dealmaking hurdles, the Dutch M&A landscape demonstrated resilience in 2024, with both strategic buyers and financial sponsors expected to be more active in 2025. That is according to the M&A Market Review from international corporate finance house Oaklins.

Following a slow start to the year, strong deal activity in the third and particularly fourth quarter drove up 2024’s total to around 1,045 transactions, relatively on par with the year previous. High interest rates, high sell-side valuations, geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic fundaments in the Netherlands, and caution among buyers were all factors that underpinned sluggish buyer appetite.

“M&A activity demonstrated a strong recovery after a very slow start in Q1. Thanks to a strong end to the year, the performance in 2024 was largely comparable to 2023 with a 3% year-over-year decline in deal volume. This signals strong resilience of M&A activity in the Netherlands despite challenging dealmaking conditions”, said Tijn Bastiaans, Partner and Head of the Private Equity team at Oaklins.

The analysis found that the rebound in the more recent months was seen among both strategic buyers and financial sponsors. In terms of strategic deals, total closings hit 244 in Q4, the highest quarterly total in the past three years. In the case of private equity, the involvement of financial sponsors in deals surged by 30% in the second half of 2024, following a significant dip in the first six months.

“The trend really underscores the renewed confidence being seen among buyers”, noted Bastiaans, who added that average deal value also creeped upwards in the second half thanks to a larger number of €500+ million closings.

Looking at individual players, Main Capital once again emerged as the most active Dutch private equity fund with 16 deals in 2024, followed by Waterland Private Equity and OxGreenfield, with 9 and 7 deals respectively. Notably, both Main Capital and Waterland Private Equity managed to achieve three successful big exits over the last twelve months.

The outlook into 2025

Looking ahead, the Oaklins report forecasts last year’s late rally to continue into 2025, supported by stabilizing financing markets and improving economic conditions. Faced with pressures to maintain their competitiveness and meet the demands of the new era, companies are eyeing inorganic moves to revamp their business models, enter new segments, or beef up capabilities.

On the private equity side, involvement in both acquisitions and exits is expected to pick up, said Bastiaans. “Keen to put their funds to work, and with more realistic valuations on the table, private equity groups will be more active on the investments side. We also expect the momentum of exits to pick up, supported by a backlog of exits, and an improving economic climate combined with increasing pressure from fund owners for liquidity.”